YOUR FIRST FIVE MOVES
Structure before solutions.
Define the decision.
What exactly must the client decide, by when, and what would a good outcome look like? Confirm the scope before analysing.
Build the simplest driver tree.
For a falling-profit case: Profit = Revenue − Costs. Revenue = Price × Volume. Separate costs into fixed and variable components. Avoid overlap.
Prioritise with evidence.
Find which driver changed most, what data would prove it, and which hypotheses can be tested quickly. Do not confuse a plausible explanation with a fact.
Run the numbers.
Original revenue £10m, costs £8m, profit £2m. New revenue £11m, costs £9.6m, profit £1.4m. Revenue grew 10%, yet profit fell 30%.
Recommend, then qualify.
State the finding, supporting numbers, recommended action, key uncertainty and next test. Explain what could change your recommendation.
Illustrative educational examples only. Figures are fictional and simplified; not investment advice or a substitute for transaction-specific analysis.